Oil Weekly #86: Which way is sector risk pointed in the event of a deal? Staying cautious

Research evidence excerpt

Oil Weekly #86: Which way is sector risk pointed in the event of a deal? Staying cautious

Global Majors

Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Refiners

Oil Weekly #86: Which way is sector risk pointed in the May 24, 2026

event of a deal? Staying cautious

Exhibit 1 - BBG vs.

The Wolfe Byte Actuals (mbbls)

Crude StocksOur oil weekly focuses on issues we see of most significance to the sector outlook, Est (2,815)

Actual (7,863)anchored on EIA weekly data as the only 'real time' monitor on the health of oil Diff (5,048)

& refining markets. EstDistillate Stocks (1,308)

Actual 372

Diff 1,680

Gasoline Stocks

Est (2657)

Actual (1,548)Issue of the week: In this 'later edition' of our oil weekly, we have waited for about Diff 1,109

as long as we can to see whether there would be greater clarity on the status of any EstUtilization 92.7%

agreement between the US and Iran to end the war. Unfortunately, POTUS' latest ActualDiff (1.1%)91.6%

suggestion of a 5-7 day window is about as good as it gets for now, leaving investors Source: Wolfe Research, EIA

and oil markets still in purgatory - but with risks incrementally tilted towards some

resolution. For now, the timeline to a full reopening of the SoH remains in flux, while

the precise language of any deal is unclear. From our standpoint statements from

both sides still have several critical contradictions that appear unresolved – with initial

optimism on Saturday arguably neutralized by Sunday. Doug Leggate

dleggate@wolferesearch.com

At this point consensus appears to expect these contradictions to be resolved by (832) 810-9915

addressing the negotiations in two phases: phase 1 that sees an MoU signed, but only View Doug’s Research

to extend the ceasefire by 60 days, during which time the Strait of Hormuz is reopened; View Comp Table