Do We Finally Have a US-Iran Deal?!

Research evidence excerpt

Do We Finally Have a US-Iran Deal?!

U.S. Policy and Politics

Do We Finally Have a US-Iran Deal?! May 24, 2026

A Skinny Deal Is Good Enough for Markets

We held off on publishing reactions to this emerging US-Iran deal yesterday pending confirmation, but with US

sources now indicating a deal is not expected to be finalized today, we lay out our preliminary thoughts below.

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1. We (may) finally have a deal! After 40 days of war and another 47 days of Strait closure after the ceasefire, we

seem very close to approval of an MOU to end the war. We argued last Tuesday that both economic and military factors

weighed heavily against re-escalation; noted that the concerning spike in bond yields was the first time we had felt that

markets were close to forcing President Trump's hand; and suggested that if he was unwilling to re-escalate, he would

need to relax his red lines, particularly on the nuclear file, to secure a deal. We weren't sure it would happen this fast,

despite optimistic headlines from Wed. onward—but that seems to be exactly what's happening. There still seem to be

a few important sticking points on the sequencing of asset unfreezing and how Strait traffic is managed, with the latter

in particular being crucial to nail down. But our sense is that there's finally enough mutual interest in getting to yes that

this deal will get done in the days ahead. If a deal doesn't materialize within days, we still think the alternative will be

continuing diplomatic efforts rather than the re-escalation Trump has been threatening.

2.