The Roth Report: What May Surprise Markets This Summer?

Research evidence excerpt

The Roth Report: What May Surprise Markets This Summer?

Economics

U.S. Economics

The Roth Report: What May Surprise Markets This May 24, 2026

Summer?

Hope you are having a great weekend! For those dealing with dreary weather, below are a few fun facts to hopefully

brighten your day.

In our base case, the recently announced US-Iran framework agreement ultimately leads to a final deal over the

coming months, with the Strait reopening earlier than expected and helping to alleviate pressure on gas prices.

We expect payroll growth and average hourly earnings to remain solid, while the unemployment rate edges

modestly higher, driven largely by seasonal increases in youth unemployment. Overall, the backdrop should remain

reasonably constructive, with growth running slightly above trend.

Today we outline six potential summer surprises that could materially shift the macro and market backdrop

over the coming months, ranging from a renewed inflation scare to a sharper decline in global yields. While

our base case remains constructive, summer months often bring outsized market moves as liquidity thins and

positioning becomes more vulnerable to unexpected developments.

Some fun facts about MDW:

●According to the National Hot Dog and Sausage Council, Memorial Day weekend marks the start of “hot dog

season,” during which Americans will consume 7 billion hot dogs between now and Labor Day. That works

out to 818 hot dogs every second and more than 20 hot dogs per person. Will you do your share?

●Every year, AAA forecasts the number of Americans traveling 50 miles or more over Memorial Day weekend.

This year, they expect a record 45 million Americans to travel for the holiday, although the 1% YoY increase