Wolfe Capital Markets Data Pack - Edition XXII

Research evidence excerpt

Wolfe Capital Markets Data Pack - Edition XXII

Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

Wolfe Capital Markets Data Pack - Edition XXII May 24, 2026

2Q IB / Trading: Size Matters as Universals are Better

Positioned vs. Smid / M&A Brokers

What is in this edition of our Capital Markets Data Pack: There is no shortage of

topics to unpack, with the combination of AI fears, higher volatility, and geopolitical

uncertainty spurring debate on the Capital Markets outlook. We also had the Steven Chubak, CFA schubak@wolferesearch.com

opportunity to engage with mgmt. teams at our Capital Markets Day on topics (646) 582-9315

including: 1) The outlook on Sponsor activity; 2) Expectations for restructuring activity; View Steven’s Research

View Comp Tableand 3) Secondaries / PCA growth given a more favorable Sponsor backdrop.

2Q IB / Trading Setup: Bulge Bracket banks best positioned for 2Q. QTD IB Brendanbobrien@wolferesearch.comO'Brien

activity is tracking -5% below cons. with softer M&A completions largely offset by 646-582-9316

more robust ECM activity. Meanwhile, trading indicators suggest a more favorable Sharon Leung

backdrop, with our analysis implying +2% upside to cons. There is a clear divide in 2Q sleung@wolferesearch.com(646) 582-9317

trends between large and small firms, with greater upside to cons. at the Universal /

Bulge Bracket banks and downside risk limited to the Smids / M&A Independents. Derekdgonda@wolferesearch.comGonda

Positive outliers (vs. cons): MC (+18%), GS (+13%), BAC (+6%), JPM (+6%), Citi (+6%),

and MS (+5%). Negative outliers (vs. cons.): PWP (-53%), RJF (-28%), PJT (-23%),

PIPR (-12%), and HLI (-10%).

What is our expectation for Sponsor activity? There has been negativity on the