The Weekly Chu: Capital Markets Data Pack / Wrap

Research evidence excerpt

The Weekly Chu: Capital Markets Data Pack / Wrap

Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

The Weekly Chu: Capital Markets Data Pack / Wrap May 24, 2026

Week of May 25th, 2026

Weekly Intro: Size Matters. First, I hope everybody is enjoying the long Memorial Day

weekend and the unofficial kickoff to summer 2026 despite the unforgiving weather.

As we look ahead to conference season, to help investors prepare for guidance

updates, we have put together the next iteration of our Wolfe Capital Markets data Steven Chubak, CFA

schubak@wolferesearch.com

pack, which includes a detailed mark-to-market of 2QTD trends across both IB and (646) 582-9315

Trading. View Steven’s Research

View Comp Table

As for what we expect the banks to say at the upcoming conferences – we broadly

expect the updates to be constructive, particularly at the bulge bracket banks. In Sharon Leung sleung@wolferesearch.com

addition to NII tailwinds from stronger loan / deposit growth and a more favorable (646) 582-9317

rate backdrop for asset sensitive Money Centers (more on that below), 2Q capital Derek Gonda

markets trends have benefited the bulges disproportionately. The biggest banks (JPM, dgonda@wolferesearch.com (646) 582-9326

C, BAC, GS, MS) are benefiting from strength in both Equities trading (notably PB and

Derivatives) and ECM, and are tracking well ahead of cons. This is in stark contrast Brendan O'Brien bobrien@wolferesearch.com

to the Smid Brokers / M&A Independents where cons. M&A forecasts appear too

aggressive, with upside to 2Q cons. IB / Trading forecasts limited to both MC and EVR.

For NII – given changing rate expectations with the futures curve no longer pricing

in rate cuts for 2026 (“WIRP” is reflecting ~1.5 hikes by 2H27), one key question is