Xiaomi Corporation: Mixed 1Q; focus on mix/IoT to support margin, EV momentum to pick up from 2Q

Research evidence excerpt

Xiaomi Corporation: Mixed 1Q; focus on mix/IoT to support margin, EV momentum to pick up from 2Q

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Research Analyst

Reiterate Buy; AI a long-term opportunity Merrillkexin.zhu@bofa.comLynch (Hong Kong)

We lower 2026-28E-adjusted earnings estimates by 2-6% to reflect the smartphone Doris Kao >>

business headwinds. Our SOTP-based PO stays at HK$40 after factoring in a reduced ResearchMerrill LynchAnalyst(Taiwan)

P/E multiple for core business, from 17x to 16x (justified by ongoing cost burden in doris.kao@bofa.com

smartphone business), and FX change. Near-term, in our view, the HK$20bn buyback plan

could support share price. Long-term, we are positive on the monetization opportunity

driven by AI, thanks to Xiaomi’s large user base, in-house software capability and strong Stock Data

ecosystem from smartphone, IoT to EV. We reiterate Buy on Xiaomi.

Price 29.76 HKD

Estimates (Dec) (CNY) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Price Objective 40.00 HKD

Net Income (Adjusted - mn) 27,235 39,166 29,473 39,967 51,359 Date Established 25-Mar-2026

EPS 0.93 1.56 0.94 1.35 1.77

Investment Opinion B-1-9

EPS Change (YoY) 34.2% 68.5% -39.6% 43.2% 31.7%

Consensus EPS (Visible Alpha) 1.08 1.41 1.84 52-Week Range 28.80 HKD-61.45 HKD

Free Cash Flow / Share 1.16 0.62 0.94 1.27 1.81 Mrkt Val / Shares Out (mn) 96,174 USD / 25,325.0

Valuation (Dec) Market Value (mn) 753,672 HKD

P/E 30.2x 17.1x 27.4x 19.1x 14.5x Average Daily Value (mn) 511.12 USD

EV / EBITDA* 21.9x 11.9x 17.6x 13.2x 10.4x Free Float 79.6%

Free Cash Flow Yield* 4.4% 2.4% 3.7% 5.0% 7.1%

BofA Ticker / Exchange XIACF / HKG

* For full definitions of iQmethod SM measures, see page 9.

Bloomberg / Reuters 1810 HK / 1810.HK

ROE (2026E) 10.7%

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