Origin Energy: Quality mix and earnings in a softer power market. Reinstate at Buy.

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Origin Energy: Quality mix and earnings in a softer power market. Reinstate at Buy.

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Origin Energy

Quality mix and earnings in a softer power

market. Reinstate at Buy.

Reinstating Coverage: BUY | PO: 13.40 AUD | Price: 10.64 AUD

Reinstate ORG at Buy. PO $13.40. 27 May 2026

We reinstate coverage of Origin Energy (ORG) with a Buy rating and a price objective of Equity

A$13.40. ORG trades on 6.8x EV/EBITDA (a 44% premium to AGL), with further multiple

expansion underpinned by its portfolio mix and growth from Octopus and Kraken. Equity Analysts Cameron Needham >>

Despite softer electricity markets with limited system tightness, we think that ORG’s Research Analyst

NSW-weighted fleet and peaking/battery exposure position earnings to benefit from Merrill+61 2 9226Lynch5034(Australia)

volatility rather than average prices. cameron.needham@bofa.com

Portfolio well-positioned against softer futures prices LaraResearchTufegdzicAnalyst>>

Wholesale prices have declined (NSW FY27 c. $94/MWh), with c. 4GW of BESS entering Merrill Lynch (Australia)

lara.tufegdzic@bofa.com

the NEM between summer 2026/27 and 2027/28, pressuring caps and flattening

Gary Tsang >>

structural volatility. This implies a softer pricing backdrop. While this reduces near‑term Research Analyst

value at Eraring, we see ORG as better positioned than peers: its NSW‑weighted fleet Merrill Lynch (Hong Kong)

gary.tsang@bofa.com

and peaking/battery exposure shifts earnings toward intraday spreads, while lower

Economist

exposure to coal reliability risk (versus AGL) limits downside from unplanned outages. Nick Stenner, CFA

Octopus & Kraken support valuation premium AustraliaMerrill Lynch& NZ(Australia)Economist

ORG’s c.