InPost: Beat in Q1, but FY26 transition story unchanged

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InPost: Beat in Q1, but FY26 transition story unchanged

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InPost

Beat in Q1, but FY26 transition story

unchanged

Reiterate Rating: NO RATING | PO: NA | Price: 15.37 EUR

Poland reset drives earnings cut; UK still a drag 26 May 2026

InPost’s 1Q26 adjusted EBITDA of PLN902m beat company-compiled consensus by 5%, Equity

driven by a resilient Poland margin, stable Eurozone profitability and sequentially

narrower UK losses. FY26 guidance was reiterated and confirms this as a transition year:

Key ChangesPoland EBITDA margin is guided to the mid-40s, reflecting investment in new

services/product capabilities and selective pricing, while UK & Ireland is expected to (PLN) Previous Current

recover to only mid-single-digit margins in FY26. We cut our 2026E group adjusted 2026E EPS 2.94 1.98

EBITDA by -13% to PLN4.2bn (24.4% margin), consistent with guidance for flat y/y 2027E EPS 3.40 2.34

EBITDA and a mid-20s group margin. Higher capex, combined with flat y/y EBITDA, 2028E EPS 3.17 2.26

pushes our 2026E leverage forecast to 2.6x from 2.2x in FY25. The shares were broadly

unchanged on the day, with trading still driven by the announced take-private offer Muneeba Kayani >>

Research Analyst

rather than fundamentals. We reiterate our No Rating stance. MLI (UK)

+44 20 7996 5208

Poland: Transition year muneeba.kayani@bofa.com

Kate Xiao, CFA >>

Polish adj. EBITDA of PLN849m beat company consensus by +8%, driven by positive Research Analyst

APM pricing, CPP discipline and a resilient 47.1% margin, despite higher logistics costs MLI (UK) +44 20 7996 3051

and new project spend. Q1 revenue grew 9.2%, slightly ahead of 8% volume growth, but kate.xiao2@bofa.com

FY26 guidance still points to MSD volume growth with revenue slightly below that, Jack Raeburn >>