Hims & Hers: Can HIMS capture nearly half of new oral Wegovy Rx? That’s what guidance implies

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Hims & Hers: Can HIMS capture nearly half of new oral Wegovy Rx? That’s what guidance implies

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Hims & Hers

Can HIMS capture nearly half of new oral

Wegovy Rx? That’s what guidance implies

Reiterate Rating: NEUTRAL | PO: 25.00 USD | Price: 23.75 USD

Diving deeper into guidance and Wegovy assumptions 26 May 2026 Corrected

HIMS’ 2026 revenue guidance requires a significant GLP-1 ramp in 2H’26 and does not Equity

contemplate potential pricing pressure around the subscription fee. Based on consensus

estimates for Novo Nordisk’s total oral Wegovy prescriptions and HIMS’ guidance, we

Key Changesestimate HIMS would need to add ~225k new oral Wegovy subscribers per quarter from

2Q-4Q to bridge the midpoint of 2026 sales guidance (Exhibit 2). This represents ~45% (US$) Previous Current

of all new U.S. oral Wegovy cash-pay patients (Exhibit 1). This contemplates an $85M Price Obj. 28.00 25.00

compounding revenue headwind by 4Q’26 as grandfathered patients steadily churn off

the platform (Exhibit 3). With a more muted compounding headwind ($25MM), our Allen Lutz, CFA

Research Analyst

estimates suggest HIMS could achieve guidance at ~35% market capture. Given churn BofAS

dynamics, the burden on customer acquisition looks challenging in 2H. While BSM data +1 646 855 4380 allen.lutz@bofa.com

hints at HIMS share of customers improving in April with HIMS historically capturing 40- Dev Weerasuriya

50% of new customers, this strikes us as a high bar. Reiterate Neutral, lower PO to $25 Research Analyst

(from $28) and our target multiple from 26.5x to 23.5x, based on risks to the full year BofAS+1 646 855 5707

guide. dev.weerasuriya@bofa.com

Hanna Lee

Oral Wegovy cash pay patients could grow ~170k a month ResearchBofAS Analyst