US Banks: Top ten questions: Asked, answered…and revisited: Mid-year check-In

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US Banks: Top ten questions: Asked, answered…and revisited: Mid-year check-In

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US Banks

Top ten questions: Asked, answered…and

revisited: Mid-year check-In

Industry Overview

#1 Will bank stocks (once again) outperform the S&P? 26 May 2026

Maybe (vs. Yes in January). YTD underperformance resets the bar. Macro clarity + EPS Equity

resiliency into 2027 could drive a bid, with large caps at 9–10x 2027E P/E vs. ~12% EPS United States

growth. Three Rs intact—but tested: Regulation, Rates, Rebound still in place, but US Banks

challenged by stagflation risks. Exhibits 1–4. Ebrahim H. Poonawala

Research Analyst

# 2 Will regional banks outperform GSIBs? BofAS+1 646 743 0490

Maybe (vs. No). YTD dispersion: capital markets stocks (GS, MS, Trust Banks) and SMID ebrahim.poonawala@bofa.com

caps have led, while money centers/super-regionals lagged. Increasingly idiosyncratic vs. Brandon Berman

size-driven. 2H26 could see Main Street reassert itself over Wall Street. Exhibits 5–10. ResearchBofAS Analyst

+1 646 855 3933

#3 Will regulatory shift remain a tailwind? brandon.berman@bofa.com

Gabriel Angelini

Yes (Unchanged). Capital proposals largely as expected. Excess capital unlock at Research Analyst

regionals surprised positively. Regulatory arbitrage vs. non-banks narrowing; next up: BofAS

+1 646 855 3081

tailoring, liquidity rules. Exhibits 11–15. gabriel.angelini@bofa.com

Michael Campos

Research Analyst#4 Will bank M&A accelerate?

BofAS

Yes (Unchanged). Structural headwinds (deposit costs, tech spend, succession, +1 646 855 3912

intellectual capital) and a supportive regulatory backdrop should drive M&A, especially michael.c.campos@bofa.com

ahead of the 2028 election window. Exhibits 16-19.

#5 Will lack of Fed rate cuts derail bank stocks?

No (Unchanged).