Internet/e-Commerce: Big-5 eCommerce Review: Big-5 gains share as GMV grows 19% y/y

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Internet/e-Commerce: Big-5 eCommerce Review: Big-5 gains share as GMV grows 19% y/y

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Internet/e-Commerce

Big-5 eCommerce Review: Big-5 gains

share as GMV grows 19% y/y

Industry Overview

1Q recap: Big-5 eComm grows 19% y/y in 1Q, 3ppt accel 26 May 2026

We are out with our updated US eCommerce model following Target’s results. The Big-5 Equity

retailers that we track grew an estimated 19% y/y (up from 16% in 4Q) and gained United States

share, driven predominantly by improvements in grocery (Amazon), delivery speeds

Justin Post

(Walmart & Target), and AI initiatives (Amazon & eBay). This compares to US Census Research Analyst

reports that total retail sales increased 4.0% y/y in 1Q, an acceleration from 2.8% y/y in BofAS

+1 415 676 3547

4Q. Based on Census data, we estimate that Online penetration expanded 90bps y/y to justin.post@bofa.com

16.8% in 1Q. For 2Q, we estimate 18% Big-5 y/y growth, with 2Q Online penetration Michael McGovern

growth aided by AI-driven shopping improvements, faster shipping/delivery speeds and Research Analyst

BofAS

Prime Days. We maintain our Buy ratings on Amazon & Walmart (WMT). +1 415 676 3520

mmcgovern@bofa.com

Amazon: strength in essentials/grocery driving unit growth Christopher Nardone

Research Analyst

We estimate US GMV ex-WFM grew 10% y/y to $129bn in 1Q’26, a 2ppt acceleration vs BofAS

4Q. Unit growth accelerated meaningfully (+3ppt q/q to 15% y/y) driven by a mix shift +1 646 743 2016 christopher.nardone@bofa.com

toward lower-ASP perishables/grocery. We expect strength in these categories (and

Madeline Cech

essentials) to continue pressuring ASPs, though we remain constructive that these Research Analyst

categories can drive higher purchase frequency for other items. 2Q should get a boost BofAS+1 646 855 5219