AstraZeneca: Pipeline deep dive: $30bn peak sales; first look into busy FY27

Research evidence excerpt

AstraZeneca: Pipeline deep dive: $30bn peak sales; first look into busy FY27

Contents

Executive summary: Pipeline deep dive 5

A busy 2H26 pipeline; deep dives into a busier FY27 5

Key 2H26 reads: S4, AVANZAR, CARDIO-TTransform 6

Busier FY27E: CTLA4, CAMBRIA-1, Farxiga FDCs, oPCSK9i 7

FY30 guide $80bn achievable, in our view; could be >$100bn 12

Pipeline needed for comfort in growth post-2030 14

PO of GBp16,500 (c18x 27E PE) unchanged 15

1. SERENA-4 2H; cautious post-persevERA 16

Debates on negative Roche persevERA vs AZN's SERENA-4 16

2. Dato-DXd 1L lung; AVANZAR, TL07/08 17

AVANZAR in 1L NSCLC due 2H26E, a $5bn peak opp 17

TROPION-Lung07 & -08 in PD-L1 subgroups both 27E 17

Competitor PIII data in 1L NSCLC due FY26-29E 19

3. Eplontersen PIII in ATTR-CM due 2H26E 21

Key debates for CARDIO-TTRansform vs HELIOS-B 21

Amvuttra launch strong but eplon could be differentiated 22

Vutrisiran HELIOS-B PIII data positive for class 23

Overall positive HELIOS-B data, but some debates remain 24

Doublet therapy appears best, but reimbursement unclear 25

4. Cliramitug; Depleter to add to eplon 26

5. CAMBRIA-1 adjuvant switch due FY27E 29

CAMBRIA-1/2 trials could be a $10bn+ peak opp 29

CAMBRIA-1; switch post 2-5 years ET ± CDK4/6i, due FY27E 30

Key debates; endocrine sensitivity, CDK4/6i & residual risk 30

Key differences vs LLY’s Inluriyo EMBER-4 switch trial 32

Sequencing debate on use upfront vs switch in adjuvant 33

CAMBRIA-2; upfront adjuvant vs ET ± CDK4/6i, due 30E 33

Duration of ET depends on risk and menopausal status 34

Adjuvant a $20bn market; KOL feedback positive uptake 35

6. Volrustomig in PD-L1 low 1L lung 36

We model $3-5bn opp in 1L mNSCLC with PD-L1 <1% 36

Debates; PD-1/TIGIT higher focus, safety & CTLA4 fails 36