1Q Earnings Updates: Share Price Volatility on Dynamic Sentiment

Research evidence excerpt

1Q Earnings Updates: Share Price Volatility on Dynamic Sentiment

revenue estimated to exceed USD1.5bn in

Jun-Q and USD4.5bn by end of year; (2) AI-related revenue represents about 30% of external

revenue, and is expected to rise to 50% in a year's time; (3) cloud revenue is expected

to increase by over 40% CAGR to USD100bn in five years. In Agentic AI, BABA has 6 key

features addressing industry issues, including governance (eg, agent identity), orchestration

(eg, scheduling), runtime (eg, sandbox), security, data (eg, data processing and analysis) and

memory (short and long contexts). For Baidu, cloud revenue increased by 53% YoY, with AI

Cloud Infra revenue increasing by 79% YoY. We expect AliCloud and Baidu Cloud margin to

improve sequentially on rising AI contribution in coming quarters. For Tencent, WorkBuddy/

CodeBuddy has achieved initial success in terms of DAU with high retention rates and potential

in conversion/monetization. We expect increase in capex on domestic chips spending to drive

MaaS and cloud revenue in 2H

Industry online shopping / parcel volume trend is in the price. Industry GMV grew 2.5%/0.2%

YoY in Mar/Apr-26 (NBS) amid slowdown in industry parcel volume. For JD, full year Retail

outlook should be intact with segment JDR margin to reach 5.6% in 2Q. We expect LT margin

for JDR to benefit from improving margin profile across different categories on strength of

supply chain capabilities and rising contribution from advertising/commission revenue. For

VIPS, we lower 2Q revenue/earnings estimates in view of recent monthly trends. GMV declined

YoY in Apr but we see improving trend in May. For logistics, JDL delivered better-than-expected

results on solid performance across different segments, thanks to deepening penetration