China Coal Persistent price hike support from Shanxi accident less likely

Research evidence excerpt

China Coal Persistent price hike support from Shanxi accident less likely

26 May 2026

China Coal EquitiesMetals & Mining

Persistent price hike support from Shanxi accident

less likely China

◆ Fatal accident in Shanxi halted metallurgical coal production Daniel Yang*

of 25.6mt, with limited spillover to thermal coal output Analyst, Asia Energy Transition The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

daniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk

◆ Coal price likely to stay high into the summer peak season, +852 299 66976

but we see upside capped at RMB900/t Evan Li*

Head, Asia Energy Transition Research

The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

◆ Maintain Hold ratings on Shenhua-H/A and TPs of evan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk

HKD43.00/RMB49.00 +852 2996 6619

Vivian Zhou*

Associate

Shanxi accident likely to tighten coking coal supply: Local media report that a gas Guangzhou

exploration incident at Shanxi Tongzhou Group resulted in roughly 90 fatalities

(Xinhua News, 24 May), making it one of the most serious accidents in the past two * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

decades. In response, around 25.6mt of coking and anthracite coal capacity in the

region has been suspended with immediate effect. Given Shanxi’s position as China’s

largest coal-producing province and a key supplier of metallurgical coal, this

development is likely to tighten nationwide coking coal supply in the near term. We

expect the initial suspension to last at least two weeks, with the impact concentrated

mainly in coking coal. That said, the market still lacks clarity on the duration and full

scale of the disruption. We expect the effect on thermal coal output to be more limited,