GYG: Right Choice ≠ Easy Choice - Reiterate Outperform

Research evidence excerpt

GYG: Right Choice ≠ Easy Choice - Reiterate Outperform

r $100m in EBITDA and over All values in AUD unless otherwise noted.

$90m in capex while distracting management. The decision to exit doesn't Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

dent our view regarding GYG's domestic and international brand appeal -

there is a whole world of opportunity outside the US, as demonstrated by

Singapore's success for example, we just didn't view the US as the right

market for GYG. For this reason, we don't believe the exit from the US

justifies a lower multiple or terminal growth rate for GYG. This decision

allows management to focus squarely on what matters for GYG today -

growing the brand, protecting franchise unit economics, and ultimately

growing the network.

Earnings remain on track. Guidance for $85m underlying EBITDA for

the Australia segment was +1% ahead of RBCe and largely in line with

consensus. Investors have justifiably been concerned regarding the macro

outlook for QSR operators with soft consumer confidence and takeaway

inflation outstripping the broader food category, but GYG's price increases

have tracked well below broader industry inflation and today's update

should go some way towards allaying some of those fears. Hurdles for

Australia segment comp sales are also easier for 4Q26 and 1Q27 (8.3%

and 4.0% respectively in the pcp, down from 11.1% in 3Q25) and we

note heightened promotional activity on Uber Eats following exclusivity

in February, which management confirmed were being funded by Uber,

allowing GYG to meet the market on value during a challenging period for

demand. Restaurant openings remain on track and the pipeline is growing

faster than it is being depleted by openings which gives us confidence that