AGROCHEMICALS : Sowing the seeds of the next ag cycle

Research evidence excerpt

AGROCHEMICALS : Sowing the seeds of the next ag cycle

EQUITIES

CHEMICALS

AGROCHEMICALS

Sowing the seeds of the next ag cycle

New “Ag Cycle Indicator” flashing green26 MAY 2026

Sector Research Report We introduce our new “Ag Cycle Indicator”, which combines seven signals to assess the current

Production time: 05:33* (London time) outlook for ag markets. This turned bullish in November 2025, having been almost exclusively

Research Analysts & Publishing Entities negative since 2022, showing that momentum was building in underlying ag conditions even before

David Symonds the Iran conflict started. Historically, the index has correctly predicted periods of outperformance for

BNP Paribas London Branch fertilizer stocks so this is a clear positive signal for the sector. We increase our “normalised” estimates(+44) 203 430 8496

david.symonds@uk.bnpparibas.com for fertilizer pricing across all three nutrients as a result.

However – fertilizer stocks have run ahead of the cycle, in our view

Whilst a fresh cycle is a clear positive for fertilizer stocks, we are hesitant to get more positive. The

Iran conflict has pushed share prices and valuations ahead of the fundamentals in our view. Nitrogen

margins are well above mid-cycle, and so the risk of the conflict ending and a reversion to normalised

margins clouds the picture for Yara and CF, and Nutrien to a lesser extent. We still think the poor

level of farmer economics here is a risk to potash demand. Phosphate is a separate case. With war-

driven sulphur shortages squeezing phosphate margins, Mosaic is the only stock which we think is

not priced at all for a more positive ag cycle; a significant rise in crop prices could be the release