Nutanix Inc: 3Q26 Results: Navigating an Environment That's Not Getting Better But Not Getting Worse

Research evidence excerpt

Nutanix Inc: 3Q26 Results: Navigating an Environment That's Not Getting Better But Not Getting Worse

.8%

0 Risk Reward Themes

MAY '25 NOV '25 MAY '26 MAY '27 Disruption: Positive

Key: Historical Stock Performance Current Stock Price Price Target Secular Growth: Positive

View descriptions of Risk Rewards Themes here

Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley Research, Morgan Stanley Institutional Equities Division. The probabilities of our Bull,

Base, and Bear case scenarios playing out were estimated with implied volatility data from the options market as of 27

May 2026. All figures are approximate risk-neutral probabilities of the stock reaching beyond the scenario price in either

three-months’ or one-years’ time. View explanation of Options Probabilities methodology here

BULL CASE $94.00 BASE CASE $55.00 BEAR CASE $24.00

23x EV/FY27e FCF of $1,177M 16x EV/CY27e FCF of $990M 7x EV/CY27e FCF of $917M

Upside to FY26/CY26 estimates. More Long term targets achievable, short-term Meaningfully slower spend environment

meaningful share gains from VMware driven runway clouded. Nutanix trades generally given macro/tariffs stunts ability to reach

by expansion of partnerships and successful inline to peers on a FCF basis of 16x. VMW Analyst Day targets. More deals coming

product releases (e.g. standalone share gain opportunity moderated by higher through the OEM channel and slower than

hypervisor). Able to see greater revenue mix of deferred deals and risks from higher expected renewal base weigh on top-line.

contribution from non-HCI pieces of the server input costs. Trades at lower end of software multiple

platform as executes on cloud and AI native and the bottom end of NTNX's historical

workloads. trading range.

Morgan Stanley Research 3