TMT Credit Research: HPQ Credit: DRAM-a Controlled in FY2Q26

Research evidence excerpt

TMT Credit Research: HPQ Credit: DRAM-a Controlled in FY2Q26

Update

May 28, 2026 04:49 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMTMT Credit Research | North America Lindsay A Tyler

Credit Analyst

HPQ Credit: DRAM-a Controlled Lindsay.Tyler@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+ +1 212 761-2734

Nishant Satyam

Strategistin FY2Q26 Nishant.Satyam@morganstanley.com +91 22 6995-6796

Key Takeaways

FY2Q26 beat expects with net rev +9% YoY (PS-led) and GM of 20.9%; mgmt.

highlighted growth in high-value categories and mitigation of commodity cost

pressures.

Personal Systems revenue +13% YoY despite -7% units, driven by mix, services,

and pricing; AI PCs a key growth area.

Mgmt. expects PS FY rev. growth, still pricing/mix-led, but FY2H follows demand

pull-forward and faces fading inventory benefits and rising input costs.

Print rev flat YoY (Supplies +1%, Comm. flat) with lower Print margins on trade/

promos; guiding FY3Q rev. seasonally in line plus continued margin pressure.

Gross leverage under <2x target, FY FCF guide maintained at $2.8-3.0bn implying

back-half weighting (FY1H26 $0.9bn), capital allocation policy reiterated.

Trade view: We see a reasonable opportunity to sell HPQ 35s into the muted

reaction to the FY26 print, following prior spread compression. While execution has

been better than expected amid memory inflation and capital allocation remains

disciplined, the FY2H setup may prove more difficult (recent demand pull-forward

and now-fading lower cost inventory benefit on PC side, with ongoing Print industry

declines), with margins already low relative to many IG TMT peers. From a relative

value lens, HPQ should trade at a greater discount to key telco and tech peers of

similar or higher ratings than reflected currently, in our view.