Brazil Election Countdown The state of a (close) race

Research evidence excerpt

Brazil Election Countdown The state of a (close) race

J P M O R G A N Latin America Economic Research

28 May 2026

Brazil Election Countdown

The state of a (close) race

• Recent events have moved the political outlook less than 5 months ahead of the EM, Economic and Policy Research

elections Mirella Sampaio

• Despite them, the scenario remains one of a tight race (55-11)mirella.sampaio@jpmorgan.com4950-3289

• Core support bases are resilient for the two main contenders, both of whom face Cassiana Fernandez

high rejection rates (55-11) 4950-3369

• Presidential election outcomes tend to be decided only in the final weeks of the cassiana.fernandez@jpmorgan.com

race Vinicius Moreira

(55-11) 4950-3195

While incumbents tend to win in Brazil, often improving their approval ratings and vinicius.moreira@jpmorgan.com

polling intentions over the election year, President Lula has not secured a stable or Gustavo Ribeiro

comfortable lead in the polls—even against a benign macroeconomic backdrop (55-11) 4950-4059

(Figure 1). The president's popularity has a better starting point than his gustavo.ribeiro@jpmorgan.com

predecessor's, but as recently as a month ago, several polls were showing the Emy Shayo Cherman

president numerically behind the main right-wing contender, Senator Flávio (55-11) 4950-6684

emy.shayo@jpmorgan.com

Bolsonaro (PL), in runoff simulations. Two recent developments may have

Cinthya M Mizuguchi

influenced the polls recently: the May 13 audio leak involving Flávio Bolsonaro (55-11) 4950-6560

and a series of policy measures announced by the administration. While these cinthya.mizuguchi@jpmorgan.com

events are relevant, they have not changed our key premises. We continue to Banco J.P. Morgan S.A.