Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Production decline remains a concern

Research evidence excerpt

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Production decline remains a concern

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

28 May 2026

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Neutral

ONGC.NS, ONGC IN

Production decline remains a concern Price (27 May 26):Rs274.05

▲Price Target (Mar-27):Rs300.00

Prior (Mar-27):Rs265.00

Higher costs and weaker production volumes drove the 4QFY26 miss for ONGC’s

standalone earnings. PAT of Rs.66.5bn missed JPMe and consensus estimates by Head of India Research

17/14%. Crude production for the quarter was down 6% YoY while gas output Sanjay Mookim AC

contracted 3% YoY. Despite the evident near-term upside from higher oil prices, (91-22) 6157-3600

we see two key concerns for ONGC: a) continued downside risk to volumes - sanjay.mookim@jpmorgan.com

driven by core declines and misses on ramp up of new fields and b) longer-term Atishy Rathi, CFA

concerns on oil prices on both supply and demand concerns. This has recently (9122) 6157-3589

atishy.rathi@jpmchase.com

driven a contraction in multiples for Asian E&P peers. We update our model, J.P. Morgan India Private Limited, J.P. Morgan

introduce FY29 numbers and maintain Neutral with a new PT of Rs300. Tower, Santacruz(E), Mumbai - 400098, SEBI

Registration: INH000001873, (91-22) 6157-3000.

• Numbers weaker than expected: ONGC reported 4QFY26 standalone PAT

of Rs66.5bn, up 3% YoY, but missing JPMe and consensus estimates by

Key Changes (FYE Mar)

17/14%. EBITDA of Rs178bn was down 6% YoY with other expenditure of

Prev Cur Δ

Rs92bn up 23% YoY. Statutory levies (royalty and cess) went up as a Adj. EPS - 27E (Rs) 33.22 50.37 51.6%

percentage of revenue QoQ - but full year averages are largely flat YoY. ONGC Adj. EPS - 28E (Rs) 31.99 44.01 37.6%

seems to have made up for lower payments earlier in the year in 4Q.