Rare Earths Dashboard China still sets spot, but the West is paying for security; strategic pricing and ramp-up risk now drive the debate

Research evidence excerpt

Rare Earths Dashboard China still sets spot, but the West is paying for security; strategic pricing and ramp-up risk now drive the debate

Jonathon Sharp AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(61 2) 9003-8312 28 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

jonathon.sharp@jpmorgan.com

Rare Earth Events and Catalysts

Figure 1: Recent rare earth events and catalysts

Date Key Event / Announcement Primary Entity Strategic Impact

Policy groundwork for US critical minerals acceleration, including use of emergency authorities and federal financing tools

20-Mar-25 Critical minerals Executive Order Trump Admin

to support domestic mining and processing.

China imposed export licensing on seven medium/heavy REEs: Sm, Gd, Tb, Dy, Lu, Sc and Y, plus related compounds,

04-Apr-25 Medium/heavy REE export controls MOFCOM / China Customs

metals, alloys and magnet materials. NdPr was not directly targeted.

Monthly NdFeB magnet exports fell to 1,238t, down 77% from Mar-25; US shipments fell to 46t. Demonstrated the speed

May-25 China magnet exports collapse China Customs

of supply-chain disruption even without a NdPr export ban.

Lynas announced first commercial dysprosium oxide production outside China, strengthening its position as the leading

16-May-25 First HRE production Lynas Rare Earths

ex-China separated REE producer.

US Government investment and offtake support for MP, including the US$110/kg NdPr price floor. Established a clear

01-Jul-25 MP / DoD strategic agreement US Government / MP Materials

ex-China strategic pricing benchmark.

Export volumes recovered as licence approvals started coming through and customers adapted to the new system. The

Jul-Aug-25 Magnet exports recover as licences flow China exporters / customers

April controls were not lifted, confirming China still controls the licensing tap.