JPM | FTM | Today’s Research | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

JPM | FTM | Today’s Research | Europe

rm estimates with the inclusion of further productivity improvements that DSV is targeting by 2030,

DKK6bn of AI/tech savings and DKK3bn of network consolidation. Given DSV’s unique performance-driven culture, we expect

it will be able to successfully extract these benefits relative to its global peers and hence deliver these to the bottom line. We

expect its cost position to materially improve vs. peers (as it looks to deliver 40% productivity improvement in Air & Sea for

instance), and enable it to deliver volume growth, slightly above market, but not at the expense of price/ yields as we see high

execution risk at other global forwarders from implementing similar initiatives given limited success to date on productivity/

efficiency efforts demonstrated by the margin leadership that DSV has been able to sustain. We see this as one of the crucial

debates post CMD, how sustainable these savings can be and will there be any top-line growth or will these be competed away.

The DSV investment case is not about delivering outsized top line growth as freight industry dynamics appear challenged in our

view, especially given volume growth comes broadly in line with GDP while market pricing appears deflationary, with upselling

services an opportunity. We view DSV as the best positioned against this narrative given it has scope to raise legacy Schenker

yields to DSV levels (30-40% uplift potential) by upselling its Value Added Services and potentially offsetting any freight mark-

up pressure (especially from container freight rates). These services, while not fully immune to AI/ digital disruption risk,

ultimately deliver a service that has a significant physical/ regulatory element that may be harder to disintermediate.