MongoDB, Inc.: 1Q27 Preview: Healthy Beat & Raise Potential Against Mixed Sentiment Creates Solid Set-up

Research evidence excerpt

MongoDB, Inc.: 1Q27 Preview: Healthy Beat & Raise Potential Against Mixed Sentiment Creates Solid Set-up

Barclays | MongoDB, Inc.

power a FY27 total revenue guidance raise slightly above the Q1 beat and another quarter of

better than expected profitability. We note over the last several quarters, MDB's stock has

moved >20% on average following its earnings results. In our view, against the more muted

backdrop, this could help reinvite interest to the MDB story, but we are not sure we will see an

outsized move like we have seen in recent quarters. We maintain our Overweight rating.

• Q1 Seasonally Small but Favorable Q1 Atlas Set-up Given Muted Expectations: For Q1,

consensus is modeling total Atlas revenue to grow ~26% y/y (vs. ~29% in Q4) to ~$499mn.

This implies -0.7% sequential growth (approx -$3.4mn q/q dollar add), which seems

conservative compared to $6.4mn added in 1Q26 and potential for early ramping of AI/digital

native customer revenue. On a days adjusted basis, this implies q/q Atlas revenue growth of

~2.7%, well below MDB's ~5.1% days adj. q/q growth delivered in 1Q26. If MDB delivers 1Q27

days adj. Atlas q/q growth in-line with last year, we could see growth come in closer to

29-29.5% y/y, or a healthy 2.2% beat (vs. 1.4% and 2.3% beats the last two quarters,

respectively). While it seems investors are looking for 29-30% Q1 Atlas growth in an upside

case, we could see a potential beat leading to growth in this range supporting the growing

view of MDB as an AI beneficiary and could help ease competitive concerns around open-

source database competition, particularly Postgres.

• Cohort Analysis Supports Another Quarter of Enterprise Advanced (EA) Upside and

Potential FY Guidance Raise: We see potential for MDB to continue its healthy upside