Barclays Mix Monitor: Rail Revenue Through Week 20

Research evidence excerpt

Barclays Mix Monitor: Rail Revenue Through Week 20

Equity Research

26 May 2026

North America Transportation

Barclays Mix Monitor: Rail Revenue

Through Week 20

Rail volume expansion and higher fuel prices are driving our North America Transportation

objective QTD weekly revenue tracker well ahead of POSITIVE

consensus second quarter estimates. Comparisons are likely North America Transportation

Brandon R. Oglenski

to continue improving through June as carriers lap last year's +1 212 526 8903

"Liberation Day" headwinds. brandon.oglenski@barclays.com

BCI, US

Eric Morgan, CFA

2Q26 Revenue Through May 23, 2026 +1 212 526 9642

North American rail volumes were mostly in line with normal seasonality last week, with some eric.morgan@barclays.com

softness evident on the West Coast (in both the US and Canada), while Eastern carriers generally BCI, US

out-performed. Industry QTD volumes are up 3% on a YoY basis (through week 19) supported by David Zazula, CFA

easing comparisons, with growth across most major commodity groups aside from coal (owing +1 212 526 5108

to contraction in Canada and the Western US). Among the carriers, CSX and Norfolk Southern david.zazula@barclays.com

lead the group on QTD volumes (through week 20) with chemicals, coal and intermodal BCI, US

supporting 3-6% growth YoY (on a unit basis). Union Pacific carloads are up 1% (with coal John Dorsett

declines partially offsetting growth in bulk and automotive shipments) while units are roughly +1 212 526 8487

flat at Canadian National (with grain offsetting intermodal) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City john.dorsett@barclays.com

(with increased agricultural shipments offsetting declines in coal). BCI, US

On revenue estimates, we mark to market carrier results quarter to date for the latest reported