Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#88): Can AI offset energy?" Kapteyn

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#88): Can AI offset energy?" Kapteyn

Global Research

26 May 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#88): Can AI offset energy?

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

For about half the world AI is a meaningful offset to higher energy prices arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

Viewed in isolation—and starting the clock in February—the global energy disruption is

clearly negative. That conclusion is less certain, however, once the tailwind from the

global AI capex cycle is taken into account. The value of trade in global technology

products is almost twice that of global energy, partly because prices for memory and

semiconductors have risen around eight times faster than Brent crude since mid 2025

(455% versus 55%). This raises the possibility that, for economies embedded in the AI

supply chain, positive AI terms of trade effects could at least partially offset higher

energy prices.

As outlined in the Compendium published today, we estimate that economies where AI

gains outweigh higher energy costs account for over 50% of global GDP. That said,

several caveats apply. First, upside risks to oil prices remain material as inventories

deplete (see this chart for the relationship between oil prices and quantities). There is a

price level at which economic activity and market confidence breaks, potentially

constraining funding for—and investment in—AI infrastructure. Moreover, the AI supply

chain broadly mirrors US spending patterns, so Asia’s outlook is closely tied to the US

capex cycle. Second, focusing on net trade or GDP shares understates the broader macro

impact of higher energy prices, including energy-driven inflation (via fertiliser and food),

tighter monetary policy, and the risk of physical rationing.