First Read: Hansoh Pharmaceutical "2026 AIC: solid growth outlook with..."

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Hansoh Pharmaceutical "2026 AIC: solid growth outlook with..."

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 43.5%

Forecast dividend yield 1.2%

Forecast stock return 44.7%

Market return assumption 10.9%

Forecast excess return 33.8%

Company Description

Hansoh Pharmaceutical is a leading Chinese pharma company that successfully transformed

from a generics manufacturer to a novel drugs developer. It has established a strong presence

in therapeutic areas such as oncology, anti-infectives, CNS and metabolic diseases, with one

of the largest novel drug portfolios among peers. The company has a seasoned management

team, as well as large sales and R&D teams. It was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in

2019.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

We use a risk-adjusted DCF methodology to value Hansoh Pharmaceutical.

We think major downside risks include:

1) Deeper-than-expected price cuts from NRDL negotiations or GPO listings. As novel drugs

contributed around 67.9% of Hansoh's revenue in 2023, deeper-than-expected price cuts for

these drugs in upcoming NRDL negotiations could lead to sluggish growth or even a decline

in revenue. In addition, if the price cuts for generics in GPO listings are deeper than expected,

generics revenue could decline further.

2) Fiercer-than-expected competition for its core products. Hansoh's core product

aumolertinib contributes a significant share of the company's revenue. If competition

intensifies with competitor drugs achieving better efficacy or safety, this could weigh on the

company's revenue growth.

3) Delay or failure in the development of key pipeline candidates. The company is running

multiple clinical trials, particularly late-stage trials. If key trials are delayed or fail to meet