First Read: Aneka Tambang "2026 AIC: solid fundamentals amid policy risks" (Buy)

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Aneka Tambang "2026 AIC: solid fundamentals amid policy risks" (Buy)

aid no UBS Cons.

discussions had taken place nor was he aware of any details about these policies. But, he 12/26E 554 431

said ANTM had given feedback about the economic risk its future High Pressure Acid 12/27E 625 474

Leach (HPAL) project faces. The CFO said that among policies in place YTD, a relaxation 12/28E 642 613

of the nickel ore price benchmark (HPM) is possible, as it is currently negative for current

and future nickel downstream projects in Indonesia. This is in line with our view of a Igor Putra

Analyst

rising likelihood of HPM and RKAB relaxation.

igor.putra@ubs.com

+62-21-2554 7033

Structurally nickel supply could remain subdued

Ivan Reynaldo Sutheja

1) The CFO said the final investment decision for the HPAL project with battery maker

CATL has been delayed due to the uncertain financial outcome for HPAL amid record ivan-reynaldo.sutheja@ubs.com

high prices for limonite HPM and sulphur. This implies future nickel supply could be +62-21-2554 7037

halted amid the current volatile policy environment. 2) ANTM has no immediate plan to

Daniel Major

sell limonite as saprolite has higher margins. This implies a faster depletion of Indonesian Analyst

high-grade ore reserves, as the move toward low-grade ore projects like HPAL could be daniel.major@ubs.com

capped due to the current economic situation. 3) The CFO thinks the regulator would +44-20-7568 3472

continue to tighten RKAB to increase national fiscal revenue, maintaining high nickel

prices.

Valuation: reiterate Buy rating and price target of Rp6,050

We like ANTM's strong nickel/gold volume growth, domestic focus and solid dividend

growth. We think the recent weak share price trend is due to regulatory risks and volatile