First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Oil below $100/bbl on US-Iran hopes" Shaw

Research evidence excerpt

First Read: Daily Commodities Note "Oil below $100/bbl on US-Iran hopes" Shaw

Key UBS Research

Mining Strategy - On the Road: China trip feedback -> Better...Our latest China

trip in the week of 11th May featured meetings with >25 contacts across industry,

government and experts, across two days in Beijing and 2½ days in Shanghai. The one-

liner from the trip was incrementally better / bullish vs our last trip in Nov-25. We came

away from the tour incrementally positive aluminium & copper 6-12mths forward, our

positive lithium price views reinforced, and perhaps a little more sanguine steel and iron

ore. We summarise key debates and read through for key commodities / industries. Link

to note. Source: UBS.

NexGen Energy Limited - Deep Dive, Entering the Build Phase: NexGen is

transitioning Rook I from technical study to execution, with construction set to begin in

summer 2026 following the rapid approval earlier this year of the License to Construct

(LTC). A detailed construction update is expected in June, and in this report we preview

the build, deconstruct key technical components, and frame the principal risks, catalysts

and valuation debates underpinning the project. At its core, Rook I is a tier-one, high-

grade underground development, but one where execution - particularly shaft sinking

and early-stage ground conditions - remains the defining risk ahead of sales, marketing

and price questions. Link to note. Source: UBS.

Market Impact of Shanxi Incident; & Spot Scenario: We consider the impact of the

Shanxi coal mine incident, with supply disruption potentially tightening met coal

markets and lifting prices. To the extent this compresses steel mill margins, low grade

iron ore discounts could tighten and potentially impact FMG & MIN over BHP & RIO. In