Global Strategy "CTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update" Le Roux

Research evidence excerpt

Global Strategy "CTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update" Le Roux

Global Research

26 May 2026ab

Global Strategy Global Macro Strategy

GlobalCTAs' Positioning and Flows - Biweekly Update

Nicolas Le Roux

Strategist

Details on the methodology/model can be found in our Q-Series report nicolas.le-roux@ubs.com

+33-14-953 2118

Bhanu Baweja

Muted equity flows, fading duration optionality despite extreme positioning Strategist

• CTAs remain comfortable with current equity exposure (around the 60th percentile bhanu.baweja@ubs.com

over the past 30+ years), supported by strong earnings momentum. From a flow +44-20-7568 6833

perspective, little is expected, with modest risk reduction in US large caps and Paul Winter

incremental re-risking in UK, French, and German equities. Analyst

• In bonds, CTAs are max short duration, implying a strong directional bias toward paul-j.winter@ubs.com

buying. However, the longer the bond sell-off persists, the less responsive they are likely +61-2-9324 2080

to be to any subsequent rally. With positions now deeply in the money and outside the Julien Conzano

key sensitivity zone, behavior is likely to be more patient than reactive, with rising Strategist

realized volatility the most likely trigger for short covering. julien.conzano@ubs.com

• In credit, spreads have plateaued in May, suggesting CTAs may look to reduce risk in +44-20-7567 2067

the coming weeks. While carry remains supportive, it may not be sufficient to offset Gerry Fowler

rising geopolitical risks and the negative convexity embedded in spreads. Strategist

• In FX, CTAs have shifted back to a broadly neutral USD stance from a modest short gerry.fowler@ubs.com

bias. Aside from some selling in AUD, CAD, and GBP, flows are likely to remain limited in +44-20-7567 5490

the near term.