Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 87" Patricot

Research evidence excerpt

Global Oil and Gas "Hormuz tracker: day 87" Patricot

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Global Oil and Gas Equities

GlobalHormuz tracker: day 87

Oil Companies, Major

Henri Patricot, CFA

Deal timeline slips again Analyst

In what is becoming a familiar pattern, the timeline for an agreement between the US henri.patricot@ubs.com

and Iran appears to be slipping again. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said today that +33-14-888 3033

negotiating a deal could "take a few days" (link). The US said the strikes carried out in Nayoung Kim

the Hormuz region yesterday were in "self-defense", targeting missile launch sites and Analyst

boats that were attempting to place mines (link). nayoung.kim@ubs.com

+44-20-7568 4010

More LNG coming out but no clear improvement overall Joshua Stone

The number of oil and gas tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz was in line with the Analyst

recent average at 3 yesterday, according to the latest UBS Evidence Lab data (> Access joshua.stone@ubs.com

+44-20-7901 5588

Dataset). The mix was different than usual as it was skewed to gas with two LNG carriers

leaving the Gulf, alongside one LPG carrier. Volumes were down to ~1.4Mboe yesterday Josh Silverstein

and have averaged 1.1Mboe/d in May so far (Figure 4EstimatedoilandgasflowsexitingtheGulf,basedonDWT,inMboe/d). The number of crossings for May Analyst

is still at 3.0, in line with April and significantly lower than February's daily average of josh.silverstein@ubs.com

+1-212-713 3513

nearly 50 crossings. We continue to see more tankers leaving the Gulf than entering it

and the trend has got worse in May: 1.6 vessels coming out for every vessel coming in in Tom Allen

May, vs. 1.4 since the start of the conflict. Flows through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait have Analyst