Saudi Insurance Sector "Saudi insurance sector update and Q1 2026 market..."

Research evidence excerpt

Saudi Insurance Sector "Saudi insurance sector update and Q1 2026 market..."

Global Research

26 May 2026ab

Saudi Insurance Sector Equities

Saudi ArabiaSaudi insurance sector update and Q1 2026

market share monitor Insurance

Michael Christelis, FIA CFA

Analyst

michael.christelis@ubs.com

Tawuniya CMD targets bolder than expected +27-11-322 7320

Tawuniya presented its CMD last week in which it published FY30 targets well ahead of

our estimates on most metrics. While we are slightly behind on GWP expectations, the

targets include stronger underwriting margin expansion and investment yields than our

long-term forecasts resulting in earnings some 25% below their target. Noteworthy, in

our view, is the guidance on dividend payout ratio (30%+ for FY30) which, when

coupled with a 25% ROE, implies expectations for book growth in the high teens

thereafter. Overall we have recently increased our longer-term forecasts but, at

SAR2,1bn, remain well below the company's FY30 net profit implying significant upside

risk should management achieve its target of SAR2,8bn.

Slight gains in share by Bupa in the last 12m

We estimate the quarterly market shares (IA data not yet available) in Medical and

Motor segments (>c80% of estimated Saudi premiums). We continue to see increased

Medical market shares by Bupa and Tawuniya over time (now c80% of the Medical

market). In Health (c60% of industry GWP), we see Bupa regaining slight share this

quarter to c44% (rolling 12m basis) after showing solid c17% growth for Q1. Tawuniya

has held on to share (c36%) with a more muted c9% growth in the quarter. Estimated

industry GWP growth of c15% was well above claims inflation (c10.4% as reported by

Bupa) implying a repricing by key players to restore margins that have been week in the

last 12 months.