US Coal "Shanxi incident impacts & latest thoughts" Eadie

Research evidence excerpt

US Coal "Shanxi incident impacts & latest thoughts" Eadie

ring by Q4-26, implying a temporary

strengthening of coal demand rather than a structural reversal. LNG supply

over the next 2yrs will be a key catalyst for prices medium-term. Regionally,

demand dynamics are mixed:

China’s imports have been constrained by negative seaborne arbitrage, though

a hot summer is expected to drive a rebound, while India’s imports are already

recovering on early heatwaves and strong thermal demand. In contrast, the

JKT region has increased procurement as a hedge against LNG disruption,

including policy shifts such as delayed coal retirements, while Europe remains

structurally weak despite coal-gas switching dynamics.

On the supply side, Indonesia is ramping exports following quota approvals,

although regulatory risks persist, while Australian shipments have

strengthened on Asian demand, albeit diesel costs pose operational pressures/

risks. Notably, at current price levels, a significant portion of global supply -

particularly Russian and parts of Indonesian and Australian production -

operate at negative margins, reinforcing a higher marginal cost floor for prices.

Key signals we're watching which could signal higher thermal prices in

2H26: 1) JKM front-month prices (>$18/MMBtu driving switching); 2)

Indonesia RKAM quotas (largest supply risk); 3) India coal stocks (currently

around record highs) & temperature forecasts; and 4) Ras Laffan repairs (3-5yrs

expected). If Indonesian supply is capped, JKM remains elevated and demand

in Asia shows strength through El Niño, we see price upside for thermal

benchmarks to ~$150/t vs $132/t spot.

Equities:

Core Natural Resources (CNR-US):

Operational Improvements: After a challenged 2025, 1Q was in line and

improved.