US Aerospace & Defense "From A to D - Boeing's bulging backlog" Parsons

Research evidence excerpt

US Aerospace & Defense "From A to D - Boeing's bulging backlog" Parsons

Global Research

26 May 2026ab

US Aerospace & Defense Equities

AmericasFrom A to D - Boeing's bulging backlog

Aerospace

Gavin Parsons

Improving in not just size, but quality Analyst

In our weekly note, we summarize top topics, notes we've published, MAX/787 gavin.parsons@ubs.com

tracking, and more. +1-212-713 2389

Joao Santos Top topics / sentiment / most discussed:

Associate Analyst

Boeing has 6,814 aircraft in backlog, compared to our estimate of 662 joao.santos@ubs.com

deliveries this year rising to >1,000 by 2030. That is robust backlog coverage, +1-212-713 1437

and we see demand supported not only by growth but pent-up replacement Max Miller

needs. This provides visibility for long-term production planning, but also Associate Analyst

(when matched with Airbus 9,143 aircraft backlog) enables better pricing. Two max.miller@ubs.com

facets of the backlog below show a clear transition underway. +1-212-713 2613

Nicholas Labbadia

Improving delivery diversification supports margins: this is an analysis Associate Analyst

that we regularly highlight as a driving factor behind improving Boeing unit nicholas.labbadia@ubs.com

price and free cash flow margins (last updated in our November FCF bridge). As +1-212-713 5573

both Boeing customer concentration and discounted deliveries mix down, we

see a natural tailwind to MAX and 787 unit cash margins - with these two

programs driving $21bn of FCF improvement by 2030 in our model.

Customer diversification: larger customers typically get larger discounts.

From 2020-2025, 42% & 59% of BA deliveries went to top 5/top 10

customers, compared to 31% and 46% over the prior two decades. As

customer mix normalizes over the next five years - to 30% and 44%