Brazilian Retailers "6x1 Reform moving forward" Strano

Research evidence excerpt

Brazilian Retailers "6x1 Reform moving forward" Strano

ng the most

exposed subsectors given their high labor intensity and operational rigidity.

6x1 work schedule shift a key risk to watch

As we recently discussed in Macro Dichotomy, Risks on the Horizon, the retail sector

is currently facing growing concerns around proposed changes to work schedules.

According to our discussions with IDV (Instituto Para Desenvolvimento do Varejo), a

shift from the current 44 weekly hours and 6x1 model to a 40 weekly hours and 5x2

structure could yield an effective ~10% increase in hourly labor costs. Industry

leaders are also concerned that a rapid implementation could increase informality

and potentially lead to higher unemployment, as the sector already faces structural

hiring challenges. Maintaining Sunday operations under the new framework would

require an estimated ~13% increase in total headcount, and as such, the IDV argues

that a transition period of closer to ten years would likely be necessary to

implement these changes without causing significant sector disruption.

EBITDA sensitivity: meaningful impact at first, but there are nuances

Using reported personnel expenses as a share of revenue, we estimate that

increased labor costs could create a material but differentiated earnings headwind

across our coverage. Assuming the workweek would be reduced by 2 hours (to 42

hours) in 2H26, followed by an additional 2-hour reduction after 12 months,

reaching 40 hours from 2H27 onwards, food retailers remain the most sensitive

subset, with average EBITDA down -13% but with high dispersion across the board.

Meanwhile, pharmacies are significantly exposed at ~14% of revenues tied to

personnel expenses. We highlight those would be worst case scenarios, as we