Moderna Inc "*Slides/Stats Analysis* INT melanoma data coming later this..."

Research evidence excerpt

Moderna Inc "*Slides/Stats Analysis* INT melanoma data coming later this..."

Global Research

26 May 2026ab

Moderna Inc Equities

United States*Slides/Stats Analysis* INT melanoma data

coming later this year - can it hit on the interm? Biotechnology

12-month rating Neutral *

12m price target US$45.00MRNA's Phase III INT adjuvant melanoma interim analysis remains one of the

biggest catalysts this year for the stock. Co has guided to 2026 and based on our

stats analysis we estimate it could come around Oct/Nov and we see 50%+ PoS Price (22 May 2026) US$46.88

it hits on the interim analysis. Stock could move 25-50% to the upside but there is a RIC: MRNA.O BBG: MRNA US

scenario in which the study doesn't stop for interim and we would need to wait for the

final analysis (ie could need more time for the curves to separate). Ultimately, we are Trading data and key metrics

positive here and believe the study should work in adjuvant melanoma and this is the 52-wk range US$57.80-22.36

first step needed to de-risk their INT program partnered with MRK (being run in RCC, Market cap. US$18.5b

NSCLC, and other indications). ** See inside for our 20 slide analysis ** Shares o/s 395m (COM)

Free float 90%

* We are hosting mgmt this week on our UBS Boston Bus Tour & Mgmt Dinner Avg. daily volume ('000) 7,558

at ASCO on Monday June 1st @ 7:30pm -- contact us if you wish to attend the Avg. daily value (m) US$391.5

ASCO dinner with mgmt - details here** Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$5.64b

P/BV (12/26E) 3.3x

Stepping back -- the prior Phase II study was in pts with stage III + IV (ie sicker Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.8x

pts) and showed clinically meaningful efficacy, cutting the risk of disease

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)

recurrence (RFS) by 49% in combo with Keytruda vs. Keytruda alone.