Healthcare Services "Weekly Check-Up: Death Care and Managed Care Outper..."

Research evidence excerpt

Healthcare Services "Weekly Check-Up: Death Care and Managed Care Outper..."

Healthcare Services UBS Research

Recently Published Industry Notes

2026 Health Insurance Symposium (May 22, 2026)

Top 10 Takeaways: 1) "If Centene, Molina and Humana are OK, Then United, CVS &

Elevance Should Have Great Years." On the heels of encouraging Q1 results, a debate in

the investment community has emerged as to whether to favor the more pure play

Medicaid and Medicare names or stick with larger more diversified MCOs that have laid

out conservative expectations for 2026. Interestingly, one experienced presenter offered

the thought (which we share) that if cost trends are improving making CNC, MOH, and

HUM's outlook ok, then UNH, CVS and ELV should have great years, presumably

because their 2026 outlooks were already very conservative. (Link to Note)

1Q26 MCO Recap: Strong Start Fueled By Seasonality; More Signs of Cost Trend

Stabilizing (May 22, 2026)

Still Early In The Year But Industry Indicates Confidence: First quarters typically track to

company expectations as the industry generally does not have sufficient claims data to

make meaningful changes in their underlying assumptions, particularly in instances

where there has been a significant shift in enrollment. Nevertheless, a majority of MCOs

this quarter felt confident enough to increase their guidance this quarter. The size of the

raises was directly tied to the beat in 1Q, which saw favorability from a lower respiratory

season (less flu Y/Y) and general cost trend seasonality (weather). The industry remained

cautious with respect to the rest of the year, but several companies signaled that if

underlying business trends continue to perform better than expected, there will likely be

further upside. (Link to Note)