Big Yellow Group: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Big Yellow Group: Risk Reward Update

UpdateM

Risk Reward – Big Yellow Group (BYG.L)

KEY EARNINGS INPUTS CATALYST CALENDAR

Drivers 2026 2027e 2028e 2029e Date Event Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley

17 Jul 2026 - 21

Average annual occupancy (%) 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 Big Yellow Group PLC Annual Shareholders Meeting

Jul 2026

Rental growth (%) 0 2 2 2

INVESTMENT DRIVERS RISKS TO PT/RATING MS ESTIMATES VS. CONSENSUS

Increase in occupancy RISKS TO UPSIDE FY Mar 2028e

Rental growth Strong demand for self-storage returns drives 60.7 Development earnings growth. EPS

52.1 65.9

Outlook for UK interest rates turns and (p)

62.7

GLOBAL REVENUE EXPOSURE markets price in rate cuts again.

RISKS TO DOWNSIDE

48.6

Inflation shock drives higher bond yields and DPS 42.2 54.0

100% UK also property yields. (p) 50.5

Demand for self-storage falls as UK consumer

remains under pressure and housing market

recovery gets pushed to the right. Mean Morgan Stanley Estimates

Source: Morgan Stanley Research Estimate

Sustained high inflation puts pressures on Source: Refinitiv, Morgan Stanley ResearchView explanation of regional hierarchies here

costs and margins.

MS ALPHA MODELS

OWNERSHIP POSITIONING

3/5 3 Month Inst. Owners, % Active 67.8%

MOST Horizon

HF Sector Long/Short Ratio 1.4x

Source: Refinitiv, FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; 1 is HF Sector Net Exposure 1%

the highest favored Quintile and 5 is the least favored

Quintile Refinitiv; MSPB Content. Includes certain hedge fund

exposures held with MSPB. Information may be

inconsistent with or may not reflect broader market

trends. Long/Short Ratio = Long Exposure / Short

exposure. Sector % of Total Net Exposure = (For a

particular sector: Long Exposure - Short Exposure) /

(Across all sectors: Long Exposure – Short Exposure).

Morgan Stanley Research 3