Japan Airport Terminal: Post F3/26 4Q Results Contact Takeaways: Estimating Total Return Yield ~3%; Lacking Real Appeal as Yield Play

Research evidence excerpt

Japan Airport Terminal: Post F3/26 4Q Results Contact Takeaways: Estimating Total Return Yield ~3%; Lacking Real Appeal as Yield Play

Update

May 27, 2026 02:17 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MJapan Airport Terminal (9706) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Post F3/26 4Q Results Contact Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5438

Takeaways: Estimating Total

Return Yield ~3%; Lacking Real

Japan Airport Terminal (9706.T, 9706 JT)

Airlines | Japan

Appeal as Yield Play Stock Rating Overweight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥7,000

Our view based on discussions with the company: 1) Preliminary figures for Apr Shr price, close (May 27, 2026) ¥4,892

2026: Haneda Airport domestic passenger traffic was +5% YoY (vs company's F3/27 Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥454.0

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥1.4

assumption of flat growth) and merchandise sales were +11%; international

passenger traffic was +5% (company's F3/27 assumption: +1.5%) and merchandise

sales were +14%. Haneda Airport revenues are off to a better start than the

company anticipated. In particular, avg spend per customer at international DFS

stores appears to be ahead of plan, mainly due to yen weakness (company guidance

assumes ¥152/$). 2) Assumptions behind F3/27 guidance: JAT is already factoring in

the expected increase in facility usage fees at Haneda Airport (domestic, +¥4bn)

from F3/27 2H (assuming fees are revised once every three years, we would expect

the next adjustment in F3/30). Also, from Apr 2026, its office rents were revised

(the main reason for an assumed YoY increase of +10% in rental income for F3/27).

3) Shareholder returns in new medium-term plan: The company plans to "maintain

stable dividends" (no quantitative criteria for a dividend hike was specified). The