ECB Surveys: Survey of Monetary Analysts

Research evidence excerpt

ECB Surveys: Survey of Monetary Analysts

Update

May 27, 2026 03:04 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+MECB Surveys | Europe Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

Survey of Monetary Analysts Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.comJean-Francois Ouvrard +49 69-21662817

Deputy Chief European Economist

Jean-Francois.Ouvrard@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662813

We are among the banks surveyed by the ECB in its Survey of Gabriela Silova

Monetary Analysts (SMA). Below, we share our take on risks EconomistGabriela.Silova@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662832

around the monetary and macroeconomic outlook. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Chiara Zangarelli

Key ECB interest rates, market rates, market conditions and asset purchases Economist

Chiara.Zangarelli@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3644

Exhibit 1: Interest rates' expected Exhibit 2: Probabilities of the next

Skander Garchi Casal

path rate change Economist

<-75 bps -75 bps -50 bps -25 bps -10 bps 0 bps 10 bps 25 bps 50 bps 75 bps >75 bps Skander.Garchi.Casal@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0034

2026 meeting 10 90 3.50 Interest rates (%) DFRJuneJuly 2026 meeting 90

10 Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+

3.00 Source: Morgan Stanley Research forecasts

Claire A Thuerwaechter

2.50 Economist

2.00 Claire.Thuerwaechter@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662842

1.50

DFR Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

MRO

1.00 MLF Luca Salford

€STR

0.50 3-month EURIBOR Strategist

Luca.Salford@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1337

0.00

Maria Chiara Russo

Strategist

Source: Morgan Stanley Research forecasts Maria.Chiara.Russo@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3499

Exhibit 3: We expect APP and PEPP Exhibit 4: We expect the take-up in

portfolios to gradually decline regular refinancing operations to

APP and PEPP Portfolios (EUR bn) remain low and to only pick up in 4Q26