Independent Power Producers: Sparks & Quarks IPP Positivity Permeates; McKinsey Fireside Chat Tomorrow; TerraPower on Deck Next Week; News Flow; Commodity Corner; Weekly Comps; IPPs Outperform

Research evidence excerpt

Independent Power Producers: Sparks & Quarks IPP Positivity Permeates; McKinsey Fireside Chat Tomorrow; TerraPower on Deck Next Week; News Flow; Commodity Corner; Weekly Comps; IPPs Outperform

lysis, where we compare select vertically integrated utilities’

disclosed capital plans to measure the relative degree of generation torque and future

opportunity set in light of accelerating load growth across the US. Based on current

plans, ETR, WEC, and DUK lead the pack in terms of generation torque, with generation

capex landing above half of total market cap (versus ~39% peer median). At the same

time, AEE and XEL stand out as favorite names with significant potential generation

capex upside relative to current plans, positioning the companies to move higher in the

future. Upcoming catalysts include IRPs (AEE, CMS, DTE), RFPs/NTPs

(AEP, OGE, POR, SO, XEL), and plan refreshes (ETR, WEC). We view this analysis

as an illustrative framework to apply before comparing other considerations such as

capital plan time horizons and capex upside visibility, though we see leaders here

positioned to deliver increasing growth, where all else is equal, and garner greater

investor interest.

• Analyzing EPS Guidance Achievability vs. Rate Base Growth: ETR Again Stands

Out. With 1Q26 earnings in the rearview mirror, we refresh our fundamental growth

tracker that compares regulated utilities’ relative degree of difficulty in meeting long-

term EPS growth targets, isolating for equity dilution on rate base growth. Specifically,

we take targeted rate base CAGRs less estimated annual equity dilution to compare the

implied EPS growth post-share dilution. Importantly, this approach does not take into

account financing headwinds from incremental parent interest expense or the potential