Guming - H JPM 2026 Global China Summit Takeaways

Research evidence excerpt

Guming - H JPM 2026 Global China Summit Takeaways

Jessie Xu AC Asia Pacific Equity Research

(852) 2800-8590 27 May 2026 J P M O R G A N

jessie.j.xu@jpmorgan.com

• Equipment strategy: Moving to domestic coffee machines is framed as cost/ROI

optimization, especially as expansion shifts toward lower-tier northern markets

where franchisees are more capex-sensitive. Domestic units are ~RMB 50–60k vs

international brands at RMB 70–80k; franchisees can pay with 24-month installment.

• 6th-gen store format upgrade: “Gen-6” stores require larger footprints with stricter

site selection; improves merchandising/space, workflows, and readiness for new

categories like coffee. Signed Gen-6 stores are ~7,000, opened 6,000+, and the year-

end goal is >10,000. Renovation can raise annual profit by ~RMB 10k (simple

renovation) or ~RMB 30k (expansion, relocation and upgrade), despite ~2–3 weeks

downtime.

• Pricing & promotions: Pricing has been stable; overall ticket moves mainly with

promo intensity and mix. Mature fruit-tea hero SKUs generally avoid deep

discounting (short, launch-only promos), while coffee remains in customer-

acquisition mode with flexible, ongoing promotions. Promotion calendar remains

active (e.g., May RMB 9.9 promo, June BOGO for milk tea, additional large promos

in Jul–Aug - more coffee-focused - plus brand ambassador announcement).

Management notes “always-on” heavy promos are not the long-term steady state;

future focus may shift toward breakfast/bakery scenarios rather than all-category

discounting.

• Margins, input costs: YTD gross margin is ~33%, broadly stable vs last year; coffee

bean-related margins improved YoY, packaging declined, dairy/sugar slightly up -

netting out overall. Key inputs by weight: tea and juice (each 20%+), then fresh fruit/