JPM OFS and Equipment Weekly Insights & Analytics: Updated NAM Rig Count Forecast

Research evidence excerpt

JPM OFS and Equipment Weekly Insights & Analytics: Updated NAM Rig Count Forecast

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

27 May 2026

JPM OFS and Equipment

Weekly Insights & Analytics: Updated NAM Rig Count

Forecast

JPM View: We are revising our NAM rig count forecast to incorporate a call on Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

ACincremental U.S. shale barrels following the increase in the oil strip. 1Q26 prints Arun Jayaram

for OFS providers signaled an improvement in fundamentals, with management (1-212) 622-8541

teams consistently describing a shift from oversupply toward emerging tailwinds arun.jayaram@jpmchase.com

and an early activity response led by privates accelerating DUC completions and Sowmya Vemulapalli

spot work. Commentary from service players also reinforces that the incremental (1-212) 270-4660

activity pickup is tightening the Lower 48 service complex (premium equipment sowmya.vemulapalli@jpmchase.com

effectively sold out), setting a higher bar for new supply and leaving public E&Ps Jason Kim

as the next leg as budgets are revisited for 2027. This setup is also consistent with (1-212) 622-1408

jason.b.kim@jpmchase.com

our recent work suggesting Privates are driving the bulk of YTD activity growth J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

and now represent ~48% of total U.S. land rigs (vs. ~42% at YE25) while Publics

and Majors have remained relatively flat. Notably, late-April/early-May saw a

meaningful acceleration in activity (+31 rigs over four weeks), which in our view Recent Thematic Work:

helps reconcile modest headline growth in 2026 with a still-disciplined public 2026 OFS & Equipment Outlook

cohort.

JPM E&P and OFS Question Bank

That said, we are seeing select public operators lean in at the margin when 2025 OFS & Equipment Outlook