Endeavour Group Investor Day - Difficult to have confidence in the sales and earnings recovery

Research evidence excerpt

Endeavour Group Investor Day - Difficult to have confidence in the sales and earnings recovery

which is required to offset operating deleverage given our sales

growth forecasts of 1.1% in FY27e, 1.5% in FY28e and 2.0% in FY29e, each Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

of which will be well below organic cost growth. This is a continuation of the Adjusted PAT (A$ mn)

Endeavour Go cost-out program, which delivered ~$300m over 5 years. The 2025A 2026E 2027E

lack of clarity on how this will impact Retail vs. Hotels, and COGS vs. CODB H1 298 264A 253

H2 148 114 108

does impact on our confidence in the FY28e and FY29e cost out. FY 446 340 361

• Return to earnings growth in FY27 unlikely. Following mid-teen Retail Style Exposure Liquor EBIT declines in FY25 (-15.5% YoY) and FY26e (-16.3% YoY), we

expect Retail Liquor earnings to fall a further 2.4% in FY27e, with EBIT

margins troughing at 4.6%. This is despite $87m of realised, in-period cost-

outs in Retail Liquor, which should partially offset operating deleverage (JPMe

1.1% sales growth vs. 5.8% Cash CODB growth ex-cost out) and price

investment (gross margin -23bps YoY in FY27e). We expect modest growth in

Hotels EBIT (+2.1% YoY in FY27e) but NPAT to decline by -3.3% YoY in

FY27e on higher interest costs as both debt levels and interest rates increase.

• Dividend payout ratio cut as capital intensity and gearing steps up. The

dividend payout ratio has been reduced from 70-80% historically to now stand

at 50% - 75%. On our earnings forecasts, this implies a 4.1% dividend yield in

FY27E. This lower payout ratio is necessary to fund the step up in capex, which

we see increasing from $451m in FY26e to $554m in FY27e and $542m in

FY28e as the pace of hotel renewals accelerates. Even with this lower payout,