Thailand Life Insurance Resilient 1Q26 premiums point to improving NBV momentum

Research evidence excerpt

Thailand Life Insurance Resilient 1Q26 premiums point to improving NBV momentum

pornpunnarath@jpmorgan.com

data suggest the Thai life insurance sector managed sales activity well during JPMorgan Securities (Thailand) Limited

the quarter. While FYP declined only 4% oya, the adjustment looks modest

against the record sales level in 1Q25 (Table 4ThailandLifeInsurance–Quarterlytrendoftotalpremium). More importantly, recurring

premium grew 8% oya, while regular premium sales, which account for 76%

of FYP, delivered positive growth of 4% oya (Table 4ThailandLifeInsurance–Quarterlytrendoftotalpremium). Following the adoption

of IFRS-17, we believe insurers have placed greater emphasis on quality sales

over the past year, supporting reserve balance growth, particularly contractual

service margin, or CSM. Industry in-force premium increased by 8% oya

during the quarter, which should support the growth of insurance profit, the

dominant earnings driver for Thai life insurers, accounting for 89% and 55%

of FY25 pre-tax earnings for TLI and BLA, respectively.

• Life sales growth momentum ahead. We expect life sales growth momentum

to improve over the remainder of the year. Rising bond yields should improve

the economics of securing future profitability, support demand for

participating policies and reduce reinvestment risk through higher new money

yields. A stronger equity market should also create more active product

offering opportunities for investment-linked business. In addition, industry

sales volume for the remainder of the year faces a low base, as shown in Table

5ThailandLifeInsurance–Monthlytrendoftotalpremium, as sales activity largely normalized after the exceptional 1Q25.

• NBV upside risk: Economic assumption changes could drive double-digit

growth.