Elastic 4Q Preview: FY27 Growth Framework in Focus

Research evidence excerpt

Elastic 4Q Preview: FY27 Growth Framework in Focus

J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research

27 May 2026

Elastic Overweight

ESTC, ESTC US

4Q Preview: FY27 Growth Framework in Focus Price (26 May 26):$54.41

▼Price Target (Dec-26):$80.00

Prior (Dec-26):$99.00

Software - Large Cap / Mid & Small

Cap

Brian Essex, CFA AC

(1-212) 622-5990

brian.essex@jpmchase.com

Elastic is scheduled to report earnings on Thursday, May 28 after market

Alex Isaac

close. (1-212) 622-9159

alex.isaac@jpmorgan.com

Conservative guide sets up for another beat, but FY27 growth durability is the

John Lee

real debate. We expect ESTC to clear the 4Q revenue and EPS bar, with Street (1-212) 622-6064

consensus effectively at guidance. Upside will depend on whether initial FY27 john.h.lee@jpmorgan.com

guidance supports continuation of sales-led subscription growth near the 20%+ J.P. Morgan Securities LLC

framework, with AI, security, and federal traction as incremental proof points. Beat

quality matters more than beat direction in our view, with sales-led subscription,

Quarterly Forecasts (FYE Apr)cRPO/RPO, and forward visibility likely to define the post-print reaction. We

Adj. EPS ($)

adjust our price target to reflect peer multiple compression. 2025A 2026E 2027E

Q1 0.35 0.60A 0.70

• Sales-led subscription durability. Sales-led subscription revenue grew 21% Q2 0.59 0.64A 0.72

y/y reported and 19% y/y CC in 3Q. 4Q guidance of $371-373mm implies Q3 0.63 0.73A 0.79

approximately 18% y/y growth at the midpoint, with management attributing Q4 0.47 0.57 0.77

FY 2.04 2.54 2.98

the sequential step-down to fewer revenue-recognition days in the April

quarter and prudence on consumption timing rather than structural Style Exposure

deceleration. We view a print above the guide as a constructive signal,