ZIM: FY26 outlook more 2H-weighted on May rate increases; better visibility from 3Q

Research evidence excerpt

ZIM: FY26 outlook more 2H-weighted on May rate increases; better visibility from 3Q

Barclays | ZIM

$2,020 given high earnings sensitivity to spot rate and fuel cost assumptions. If we look at FY26

guidance provided by other peers, HLAG is guiding for group EBITDA (mostly ocean) in the

$1.1-3.1bn range from $3.7bn reported in FY25, mid point close to 50% below YoY. We model

$2.4bn, c35% down YoY. Maersk is guiding for EBITDA at $4.5/7bn EBITDA from $9.5bn in FY25.

By taking out c$3.8bn EBITDA of non-ocean profitability, Ocean EBITDA is expected to reduce

from $6.3bn in FY25 to $0.5/3.3bn. We currently model Maersk Ocean EBITDA at $2.9bn; at the

upper end of the range. As we mention in our post-1Q26 Maersk and HLAG notes, we see

estimates moving towards the upper end of the range, given RS unlikely to reopen anytime soon

and spot rates reflecting a seasonal pick-up. However, given Iran/US negotiations remain fluid,

timing of a possible RS reopening remains very difficult to estimate, whilst shipping lines have

heavy cyclical exposure and would suffer from a macro slow-down. Beyond 2026, we still model

for RS reopening in 2027, adding to rate pressure in FY27 and FY28 from new-build vessel

deliveries, but we still expect ZIM to remain EBITDA +ve. in Our PT reduces to $14.5 from $15.8

on lower estimates as we better model fuel pass-through, with some time lag into 2Q between

revenues and costs. We maintain our UW rating on premium valuation vs peers and declining

rates.

ZIM: Financial and Valuation Metrics EPS (USD)

FY Dec 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

EPS 17.84A 3.98A -2.37E -5.80E -8.88E

Previous EPS 17.84A 3.98A 1.97E 0.43E -2.40E

Consensus EPS 17.82A 3.98A -2.74E -2.82E -1.96E

P/E 1.4 6.3 N/A N/A N/A

Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg received on 25-May-2026; 12:50 GMT