Elastic N.V.: 4Q26 Preview: FY27 Guide Unlikely to be a Catalyst

Research evidence excerpt

Elastic N.V.: 4Q26 Preview: FY27 Guide Unlikely to be a Catalyst

Equity Research

U.S. Software

26 May 2026

Elastic N.V.

4Q26 Preview: FY27 Guide Unlikely

to be a Catalyst

Online sources indicate new ESTC price increase in May 2026 ESTC OVERWEIGHT

(more below). We expect ~15% y/y total rev. growth in cc in U.S. Software POSITIVE

Q4 and an initial FY27 guide of ~12% y/y in cc. Federal gov. Price Target USD 76.00

Price (22-May-26) USD 54.81

deals flowing through in Q3 potentially drive a softer q/q Potential Upside/Downside +38.7%

trend in Q4 self-managed. Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

U.S. SoftwareOur take: Following an updated FY26 guide at Q3 earnings where investors wanted a more

Raimo Lenschow, CFA

aggressive sales-led growth guide, we think it is unlikely for ESTC mgmt to be overly aggressive

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with its upcoming FY27 guide to start. While large deal momentum appears healthy and raimo.lenschow@barclays.com

supports top-line metrics over time, the ramp on usage (particularly for deals like CISA) takes BCI, US

time to materially show up, and mgmt has historically maintained a relatively conservative

Eamon Coughlin

guidance philosophy at the start of the year (see Fig 1 below). Despite mgmt continuing to

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reiterate confidence in its medium-term growth guide, we don't think that the initial FY27 eamon.coughlin@barclays.com

growth guide will shift the narrative for shares. BCI, US

Self-managed q/q growth could be negative given uplift from delayed federal deals in

Q3. ESTC mgmt acknowledged that a ~1% renewal impact from the Q2 shutdown was fully

recovered in Q3, though highlighted that federal demand remains strong and resilient. We think

that self-managed revenue likely comes in at most in-line with Q3's absolute dollar number,