PEXA Group "Australian Exchange outcomes a world IPART" (Neutral) Chidgey

Research evidence excerpt

PEXA Group "Australian Exchange outcomes a world IPART" (Neutral) Chidgey

en under PEXA's 'line in the sand' proposal which rolls forward the implied IAB under

From To % ch Cons.

IPART's 2019 review (pricing was deemed reasonable), we estimate revenues could fall 06/26E 0.28 0.28 -0 0.34

11%. We note every 10% cut in revenues could reduce EPS up to 12.5% by FY31E. 06/27E 0.35 0.34 -1 0.36

06/28E 0.56 0.54 -2 0.50

Tougher backdrop for transaction volumes into FY27E?

Kieren ChidgeyWhile regulatory reviews could impact from FY28E onwards, volume risks into FY27E

Analyst

under the current pricing regime have also risen. Alongside cyclical headwinds to kieren.chidgey@ubs.com

property transactions from higher interest rates, CGT and negative gearing changes to +61-2-9324 2820

residential property investment under the 2026 Federal Budget could have structural

Shreyas Patel, FIAAimplications. Our macro driven regression models (>95% adjusted R2 over last 15yrs)

point to flat transfer volumes and softer remortgage (-2%) volumes in FY27E. shreyas-k.patel@ubs.com

Furthermore, with investors accounting for 40% of transfer volumes, we believe Budget +61-2-9324 2821

tax changes could add incremental downside to FY27E transfer volumes with every -1%

Fraser Noye

reduction impacting EPS by -2% in FY27E.

fraser.noye@ubs.com

UBSe price target cut to $12.80/shr to reflect regulatory review risks +61-2-9324 3353

Given wide ranging potential IPART impacts, we await its Draft Report before adjusting

Australian Exchange fees with our EPS revisions of -1% to FY27E & -2% FY28E reflecting

a softer volume outlook and higher interest expense. However, the 18% cut to our price

target to $12.80 (from $15.70) reflects probability weighted Base, Bull and Bear