Volaris "2Q should mark the bottom" (Buy) Valerio

Research evidence excerpt

Volaris "2Q should mark the bottom" (Buy) Valerio

Global Research

25 May 2026ab

Volaris Equities

Mexico2Q should mark the bottom

Airlines

12-month rating Buy *

2Q should mark the bottom

We are reiterating our Buy rating on Volaris despite heightened global volatility 12m price target US$9.00

stemming from the Iran conflict. We see a rational market prioritizing fare increases

in the hopes of reclaiming profitability from higher fuel costs. The company’s

Price (22 May 2026) US$6.88

structurally low CASM-ex remains a key competitive advantage ($5.6c vs Viva's

$6.1c and AeroMexico's $9.1c, not adjusted for stage length), providing flexibility to RIC: VLRS.N BBG: VLRS US

absorb cost inflation and protect margins through the cycle. 1Q results provided

Trading data and key metrics

important insights into 2Q, which should effectively represent the bottom in terms

52-wk range US$10.63-4.19

of performance—reflecting the full impact of higher fuel costs without full pass-

through into fares, as a portion of tickets had already been sold. Assuming no Market cap. US$0.80b

additional shocks and a potential normalization or decline in fuel prices, we expect Shares o/s 117m (ORD)

trends to improve beyond 2Q on a sequential basis. Free float 33%

Avg. daily volume ('000) 196

Key takeaways from the sector in 1Q26 Avg. daily value (m) US$1.5

On an industry level, ASMs were broadly flat year-on-year, reflecting a combination Common s/h equity (12/26E) US$0.01b

of weak domestic capacity, down 2%, and moderate international growth of 3%. P/BV (12/26E) >100

Capacity trends were mixed across operators, with both Viva and Aeromexico Net debt to EBITDA (12/26E) 0.2x

reducing ASMs in both markets, while Volaris continued to shift its network toward

EPS (UBS, diluted) (USD)