US Mid-Cap Banks "Positioning for the Next Wave of Bank M&A" Braziler

Research evidence excerpt

US Mid-Cap Banks "Positioning for the Next Wave of Bank M&A" Braziler

Global Research

25 May 2026ab

US Mid-Cap Banks Equities

AmericasPositioning for the Next Wave of Bank M&A

Banks

Timur Braziler

Our Call Analyst

Recent M&A cadence suggests 50+ deals could be announced through year-end. We timur.braziler@ubs.com

expect activity to accelerate following a slow start to the year, driven by (1) normalization +1-860-275 8004

of Middle East volatility, (2) June codification of B3E rules, (3) a gradually narrowing Sámuel Varga

regulatory window, (4) the structural need for scale in an increasingly technology- Associate Analyst

intensive industry, and (5) typically lagging deposit growth during Fed pauses, which samuel.varga@ubs.com

tends to catalyze consolidation (Figure 7). Against this backdrop, we screen all banks > +1-201-352 6887

$1B in assets to identify the most likely buyers and sellers (Figure 2 and Figure 1). Andrew Gorczyca

Associate Analyst

Consolidation Scorecard andrew.gorczyca@ubs.com

+1-212-649 8017

Historically, the nine variables outlined below—seven quantitative and two qualitative—

have correlated with the majority of bank M&A activity. We screen all publicly traded

banks with over $1B in assets across these factors and incorporate a purchase

accounting adjustment as a mitigating variable, resulting in a composite score out of

nine. To ensure investability, we also apply a liquidity threshold of $5mm in average daily

trading volume to exclude illiquid names. Within our coverage universe, MCB (5.2/9)

and FHN (5.3/9) rank highest. Outside of coverage, the top-scoring banks include FLG

(8.0/9), PGC (7.7/9), OCFC (6.7/9), HOPE (6.3/9), and CLBK (6.0/9), followed by an

additional 16 banks scoring 5.0/9. We believe this curated screen provides a practical